[Vyse]

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The problem is, you can't have Jurrjens project positive and JoJo Reyes project negative

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It's too bad I didn't project negatively for Reyes, isn't it? I said the Braves had negative three wins from the back two of their rotation (33 starts each). If Glavine and Jurrjens net 40 WARP, that's a 7 win upgrade. It doesn't have to be JUST those two; Jurrjens and Glavine alone gives them 1) better options just for 2007, really, and more importantly 2) gives them league-average depth behind their starting five when injuries strike, not BELOW replacement-level depth when injuries strike. So therefore as a whole the 66 starts their #4 and #5 pitchers made this year will be 66 starts of something resembling league-average productivity.

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because JoJo is a better prospect and is a year more advanced. I thought we were all set on Smoltz, Hudson, James, and JoJo as the top four, and the Braves looking for a #5.

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No, the Braves are looking for two 2008-ready league-average SPs. Jurrjens is better for 08 for the Braves because minor league starters who have low walks / HR rather than high BB / Ks usually adapt the league quicker (albeit with much lower upsides).

No one's saying that if everything stayed exactly the same the Braves would lose 3 wins from the last two spots in their rotation. They can't help but be better than that by default. But if they go with Carlyle and Reyes as 4 and 5, then what happens when one injury strikes? The same thing as last year. Now when injuries strike they have some fascimile of league-average ... which is where the value is won.

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On top of that, guys you've never heard of Kelvin Villa and James Parr project less than a win behind Jurrjens could be ready by the break. Then you add the Thomas Hansen factor, and the fact that he'll be starting the year in AA which means he could rocket into the second half rotation with better stuff and more upside and you've got a lot of potential for the #5 slot in the rotation. Glavine adds about 1.5 wins in expectation over that group and reduces the variance big time. If Jurrjens takes the spot, then he'll add a half a win and have more variance than Glavine and less then the others. There is a very good chance that if the Braves sign Glavine that Jurrjens starts the year in AAA. When I did my Tigers prospect list, that is exactly where I had Jurrjens listed, although he was kind of a tweener.

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I'm really starting to believe you're just going on and on just to play Devil's Advocate or something. You're goign through all of this for no reason whatsoever. It's quite simple:

Braves: -3 wins from 66 starts last year
Braves 08: Projected +4 wins from No. 4/5 in rotation this year

Net: 7 wins