[rwperu34]

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Yeah, project to 3 wins... over what? Negative two wins? Five win gain? Yeah, that one. A league average pitcher for 200 IP is WAAAAAY more than the Braves had last year. Smoltz + Hudson + Glavine + James + Jurrjens gives them two great ones and five average ones, with a little actual depth this time around. That already makes them a playoff team and maybe the best team in the NL. Look at all the negative VORP they got from random [censored] starters:

Kyle Davies: -5.1
Jo-Jo Reyes: -5.8
Lance Cormier: -8.2
Mark Redman: -15.1
Anthony Lerew: -2.3
Buddy Carlyle: 2.4
Jeff Bennett: 3.6

Total: 66 starts, -30.5 VORP

Glavine alone had a 28.1 VORP. Which is nearly a six win difference. Give Glavine and Jurrjens combined 40 VORP and we have a seven win upgrade over last season.

Rent's been worth about 6.5 wins to the Braves in his time there. All Escobar has to be worth is four wins and we're looking at a big upgrade to the team for cheap.

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The problem is, you can't have Jurrjens project positive and JoJo Reyes project negative because JoJo is a better prospect and is a year more advanced. I thought we were all set on Smoltz, Hudson, James, and JoJo as the top four, and the Braves looking for a #5. Carlyle didn't outproduce his periphs and netted 1.1 wins. On top of that, guys you've never heard of Kelvin Villa and James Parr project less than a win behind Jurrjens could be ready by the break. Then you add the Thomas Hansen factor, and the fact that he'll be starting the year in AA which means he could rocket into the second half rotation with better stuff and more upside and you've got a lot of potential for the #5 slot in the rotation. Glavine adds about 1.5 wins in expectation over that group and reduces the variance big time. If Jurrjens takes the spot, then he'll add a half a win and have more variance than Glavine and less then the others. There is a very good chance that if the Braves sign Glavine that Jurrjens starts the year in AAA. When I did my Tigers prospect list, that is exactly where I had Jurrjens listed, although he was kind of a tweener.

Final tally for two teams on the playoff bubble in 2008-
Braves-1.5 wins less Renteria to Escobar, a final tally of around 1.2 wins gained.
Tigers-3.0 wins minimum, more likely about 4.0 in total EV depending on the replacement shortstop.