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Old 01-03-2006, 06:08 PM
Fryguy Fryguy is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,227
Default Re: Problem with your book

[ QUOTE ]
I think it is, yes.

What kind of roulette wheel would chuck norris play on?

[/ QUOTE ]

POTD!

Probability 101.

We flip a coin. It just so happens that it comes up tails 19 times. We flip it again. The chance of it becoming heads is exactly 50/50.

In the VERY LONG run the coin will have exactly the same amount of heads as in tails. But in the short term you may get 2 heads for every 1 tail 100,000 times, and then 2 tails for ever 1 head 100,000 times to even out.

This is what is called variance, and is the entire fundamentals for why casinos are still open, why fish still play poker, and how we make money.

Please learn what you are talking about before you butcher the concept of "due".

Further example. When you flop a 4-flush, it comes in 1 out of 3 times. Let's say you miss it 10 times in a row. Eventually you've got to "make up 3", but this might involve going 2 for 5 3 times instead of going 2 for 6 those same 3 times. That's over 18 flush draws, probably a few thousand hands. As you can see, variance can take a LONG time to even out. Because of this, the chance of the next event being or not being a flush is exactly the same as it was when you started.

This is like basics of gambling man. Go read a book, kill yourself, both, or learn to swim. Do something.