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Old 10-26-2007, 01:32 PM
argy1182 argy1182 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 44
Default Re: 25NL - Tough flop decision, even with AA?

BLUF - we need some info on the villain's stats

but for now we'll make some very basic assumptions here assuming we don't have a lot of information on the villain. 6 handed, i would reraise with KK and QQ both from the button, even against a UTG raise of 4bb. 99 would warrant a call for most players, so that's a dangerous hand for this board.
KQ could be a likely holding, but at least you have some redraws to save yourself. And of course there is the chance he called with a 10J and you're in the hurt box. I would largely discount hands like K9 and Q9 unless he's been calling with that trash throughout the session.
So.....now you need to apply your own mathematics. According to your reads and the use of pokerstove, you can approximate your EV for each play. Personally, I would be on the line for either play just on instinct alone and would rely more heavily on the villain's previous patterns of aggression and commitment.
The important thing to realize is this - you are at the commitment threshold and your play here will either commit you to this hand or not.
Anybody run these numbers on pokerstove???
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