[J.A.Sucker]

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ok i will break down the matchups a bit.

starting pitching: red sox have a major advantage here. the rockies' best asset is that neither team has seen the other's starters that much, which may help their guys be effective at first. beckett and schilling are both pitching a good deal better right now than any of colorado's starters, and the sox have a ton of proven post-season experience.

ERA+ for likely starters:

COL:
Francis 114
Cook 116
Fogg 97
Jimenez 112

BOS:
Beckett 145
Schilling 122
Dice K 108
Wake 100

So basically, Sox have a huge advantage in the top two and the bottom two are close to a push.

offense: rockies lineup away from coors field is decent by NL west standards, but not outstanding. they will be starting three guys with an OPS+ under 100. sox will start one (lugo). sox had a slightly higher team OPS+ during the regular season (107 vs 103) and that was with manny being hurt / not being manny, crisp seeing time instead of ellsbury, etc. i don't know if any rockies missed a lot of time this year, the only ones i can think of have sub-100 OPS+ anyway (taveras and matsui).

i think the sox offense is better, not as much better as their pitching, but better.

bench: only guy COL seems to have who isn't total ass is spilborghs. BOS bench seems pretty weak too, although the crappy guys we have are generally less crappy than the total dreck at the end of COL's bench. i doubt this will be a big factor anyway, but neither team's bench is really any good.

bullpen: sox had the best bullpen ERA in baseball this year while playing in the AL East. corpas was absolutely filthy for COL, other than that fuentes is their only real standout that i can see. COL bullpen isn't bad at all, but BOS has three guys with a regular season ERA+ over 200, and have the best reliever in the playoffs in papelbon.

defense and coaching: i don't know much about defensive metrics and i'm not that familiar with hurdle, so i don't have much to say, but my feeling is that COL has a slightly better defense and BOS has slightly better coaching. farrell seems to have done a fantastic job with the staff this year.

baserunning: sox stole only 4 fewer bases and did it at a higher rate, but they also are known for doing hilariously stupid [censored] on the basepaths. meh. slight edge COL? push?
insert obligatory joke about holliday not having to touch the bases in order to win here.

i like the sox in 5. rockies are a fun team to watch but i think they're seriously overmatched here, and anyone who is thinking otherwise is looking at what they did running through the weak NL in the playoffs. look at what these players have done over the long run, look at the gaps in experience and pitching talent, and look at how weak the NL field is compared to boston.

anything can happen, it's the playoffs, but i would say the rockies are a dog to take it to 6 and i'd be shocked if this series goes the full 7. gl though and i hope it's fun to watch.

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NT, Colorado's hitting is at the very least even with Boston's, and probably higher. Not having a DH hurts Boston a lot more than the Rockies. I actually would think that the Rox lineup is slightly better, position by position. Ortiz is a cripple right now. Holliday is better than anyone on the Sox (though Manny is on a tear right now, for sure), and Atkins, Todd, and Tulo are as good a hitter as any non-Manny on the Sox (considering Ortiz is not near 100%). Granted Todd and Tulo have been ass in the playoffs, but we'll see if that changes.

Starting pitching is Boston's biggest advantage. Beckett is unstoppable. However, Francis has been the bees knees for about two months. The dude is cool and collected, and won't be intimidated. The Sox will be heavy favorites in both of Beckett's starts, with good reason. After that, I don't think you've got as big of an advantage as you think. Jiminez has been very tough for two months and Schilling hasn't really been that good. C'mon. After that, both staffs are really not that special (I'm assuming that Cook doesn't come back). Dice-K and Wake are average at best.

Bullpens are very strong on both sides, and I really don't see any advantage. Once again, you only need a couple of great bullpen guys in the playoffs and Corpas/Fuentes are top-notch. Herges has been very solid and looks unflappable. This is really a wash.

Other: The Sox have all the confidence of being able to come back against any adversity, they've been there before, and they have home field (huge). The Rox have lots of confidence knowing that they only have to play slightly above .500 ball and they win the whole shebang. They also don't seem to give a f*ck about anything. Who the hell knows how that will all play out.

I sure don't.

Still, the Sox have to be favored, and my brain think they will win a tough series. That said, I'm a huge homer and will go with my heart!

ROX in 7!!!!!!!!!!!

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ROCKIES!!!!!!111111111111111