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Old 03-17-2006, 02:09 AM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Wookie is right
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Default Re: Did I overcount my outs?

Responding blind: ye...urk, urk, I looked at it, ugh, aaaaaiiiiiiieeeeeee! WTF?



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I normally raise a high pair, but with so many callers in front of me, I figured I wasn't going to drive out a K-x or A-x and I would have to chuck my hand anyway if the flop gave out overcards without a queen. I had also been pushing high pairs earlier, so this looked like an opportunity to mix it up and hope to win a lot of bets if the queen hits.

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Gack! You push big pairs because you've got big equity. 3 cold-callers are 3 people that aren't going to fold no matter how many bets they have to call. RAISE!

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Obviously, when I got bet-reraised I knew what I was up against.

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No, you didn't. This could just as well be AK, in which case you're ahead, or another jackass "mixing it up" with KK (in which case you're drawing nearly dead, btw) or even AA.

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I was going to need to pair the board to win. At the time, I was doing a quick 1+6 count of the possible outs (the queen plus the other three suits of the flop cards) to justify calling this down. That was a mistake with respect to the King because that's a likely card that got folded by at least one of the other players. But at this point, to call the reraise, the pot is offering immediate odds of 9-1. I'd be lying if I did the math during the heat of the hand, but I was figuring that if I missed pairing the board on the turn, that would create more outs to pair the board on the river, which would make up for the effective odds for calling one bet on the turn.

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This is all nonsense. There is no way on Earth you're going to be able to convince anybody that you should have folded the flop with a set of queens. Just stop trying. You don't need to count outs, here, either; just focus any brainpower you have available after tending to the needs of sustaining life on finding and clicking the "bet" and "raise" buttons.

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Did I talk myself into being a donkey this hand?

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If you mean, "did I assume that MP3 had a flush and play like a pu$$y?" then the answer is yes. You need to, at a minimum, find one more raise. Personally, I'd put it in on the turn, and call down if MP3 3-bets.
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