Re: Problem with your book
Edit: I seriously think the OP is a troll after reading most of the thread.
If you flip a fair coin and it lands tail 19 times in a row
on the 20th flip the odds of it being heads are 50%
no more, no less.
The reason long term probabilities work is not because each tail makes an upcoming heads "more likely" but because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row.
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