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Old 10-19-2007, 11:12 AM
You're No Daisy You're No Daisy is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Pinning the tail on the donkey
Posts: 482
Default Re: grrr...am I getting pushed around by this villain..?

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equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }

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That range is insane, both as a range given preflop/flop action and as a calling range.

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.681% 61.40% 04.28% 52275 3646.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 34.319% 30.04% 04.28% 25573 3646.00 { 55-22, AJs+, A5s-A2s, 65s, 43s, AJo+, A5o-A2o, 65o, 43o }

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That range is insane, both as a range given preflop/flop action and as a calling range.

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I have villain's preflop range as even wider since he plays 38% of his hands. A fairly good estimate of villain's preflop range would be any pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, any suited connectors 32s+ (actually about 37.3% of all hands dealt).

Preflop:
Board: 4c 3c As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.295% 83.25% 02.04% 300839 7373.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 14.705% 12.67% 02.04% 45765 7373.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, QTo+, JTo }

Flop:
Board: 4c 3c As 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.741% 80.53% 01.21% 12579 189.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 18.259% 17.05% 01.21% 2663 189.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, QTo+, JTo }

What is villain minraising with here? An Ace, a draw, a set? Why is he all of the sudden potting the turn? Maybe to get weak draws to fold. I do think we can tighten up villain's post flop range to 56, 33-66, AT+ and now we're a coin flip.

Board: 4c 3c As 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.214% 48.67% 01.54% 1135 36.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 49.786% 48.24% 01.54% 1125 36.00 { 66-33, ATs+, 65s, ATo+, 65o }

I'm still getting it all-in on the turn, but I would rather have done it on the flop.

AC
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