[Buzz]

Hi Olrik - There's no question about your calling a bet on the river, right?

If so, let's back up from there. Playing the turn correctly is the key to this hand.

On the turn, since you're more or less fairly certain you're also going to call the river bet, and that both opponents will also contribute a like amount to the pot, there will be 8+6 = 14 big bets in the pot at the showdown, and 2 of them will be henceforth yours.

Divide the pot in two and think of your half as being 7, with 2 of those being henceforth yours. Thus you’re getting 5 to 2 implied pot odds to continue. Over the long haul with this hand/board, you will break even if you win four out of ten times. Thus you need to expect to win more than four times out of ten to have a favorable expectation. You need to win better than 40%.

And how often should you expect to win high with this hand/board? Against two opponents, I think in the neighborhood of 92%.

92% is much more favorable than the 40% you need to call. Meanwhile, neither Villain may hold 2-5-X-Y for the wheel. If neither Villain has the wheel, might you knock them both out with a raise?

Specifically, if BB has ever bet a hand and then folded when he got raised, then you definitely should exploit this weak/tight play on other previous hands by raising on the turn. By doing so, you may upgrade your hand from a probable winner for high to a possible scooper.

Winning the 9 big bets already in the pot is better than getting half of 14 bets (of which 2 will henceforth be your own). And if they both call, far out!

Raise on the turn!!!

Buzz