Ed,
I think that one or more of Fama/French/Maliel have stated that while the markets may not be completely effecient all the time, it's best to allocate assests as if EMT were true.
Jeff Vinik subsequently got fired/resigned from Fidelity and now runs a hedge fund. The point is (I think), it's impossible to predict what managers will outperform in the future.
As to your book list, there is one that from all my reading, makes the most sense out of all this debate. It cites the relevant academic papers, recent research and makes a compelling case.
The name of the book and it's description at Amazon is misleading. The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need : The Way Smart Money Invests Today -
link
If you are at all curious about all of this it would be unfortunate not to read it.