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Old 10-18-2007, 08:58 AM
Sober Sober is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Offering bad advice
Posts: 454
Default Re: $16 late game stop n\' go

I don't think FE is an issue on this flop. In fact, I'm fighting it.

If he has an overpair or the 6, he's not folding to a stopngo or a cr. If he has two overs, he may fold to the stopngo, and he might find a way to fold to the cr.

If he folds to the stopngo, we've won 1300. If he folds to the cr, we've won 1300 plus another bet, probably around 700.

The thing is, if he's got two overs, we WANT him to call or at least put in another bet, because we're way ahead. With only two cards to come, he's roughly 24% to win, plus we've got the four 4's and two 5's for redraw. He'll likely call the cr, since he'd have to call an additional 880 to win 3580 (assuming his cbet was only 700). He'd even be getting correct odds to call, getting over 4:1.

If he has an overpair, we're busting either way on a flop like this.

We very likely have the best hand, and if we don't, we're out anyway. Might as well play the hand in a way that extracts the most value.
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