Re: Preflop, Newbie Questions
I play him a fair bit and I think his range here in hand 1 is 10/10-A/A, AK-AQ. Maybe the occasional KQ or AJ but he doesn't 3bet me light that i've seen. FWIW in my last 1k hands with him his been 21/14.7/2 so he is a little more opened up than your stats suggest I think. In hand 2 his range is a bit tighter.
I'm not a huge fan of calling the first one against this guy. He's likely to cbet a lot of flops and its hard to think of a flop where your really happy with your hand, except for a set. An A or a K is going to coe 40% of the time and your plan there was to c/f.
When an A or K doesn't come i'd say 50% of his range is a better pair than yours. If you plan to call flop when he bets like 42 and fold to a second barrel on these, even if we assume when he doesn't have a pair he just insta folds flop and never bluffs you out, your winning 36, .5*.6 = 30% of the time and losing 62 20% and losing 20 50%.
thats like -21 EV or so, but maybe your enough better than me postflop to avoid this stuff. when you called what was your plan?
So it seems like except for set value theres not much to gain here.
However, in hand 2, especially given that he saw you call his 3 bet and fold the flop I would definately feel good about calling with QQ. He's more likely to fire missed flops with AK/AQ cause he saw you fold before. When an overcard doesn't come you can be way more conifdent that you have the best hand.
Bascially to me 1 seems like an easy fold against a nit
2 seems like an easy call.
Also I wouldn't say he's solid. Hes pretty aweful postflop imo, but I guess he is solid pre.
|