[Buzz]

Big Biceps - What to do with this hand is entirely opponent dependent.

I have sometimes (but not always) raised pre-flop with this hand. If I get one opponent calling, he/she probably has the missing ace. So we start out he/she reading me for a possible pair of aces plus two mystery cards and me reading him/her for a single ace plus three mystery cards. And then I play accordingly on the second betting round, probably following up with a continuation bet.

Since Hero has three aces, there's a fair chance nobody else has an ace. When I'm playing tightly, the percentage of starting hands I'll play without an ace is very low - less than ten percent.

[ QUOTE ]
In limit O8, nine handed, folded to you in MP3 with AAAT with the ace suited with the ten.

[/ QUOTE ]So UTG, MP1, and MP2 have folded, with LP1, CO, Button, SB and BB yet to act. Let's assume the three hands that folded were aceless.

That leaves five hands that could possibly have an ace. 52-12-4=36 cards that could have an ace and 20 of them held by opponents yet to act. Looks like the probability one of the opponents yet to act has the missing ace is 20/36= 0.556. So it's about 4 to 5 that nobody yet to act has the missing ace. Pretty close.

Even if someone has the ace, assuming you don't usually raise when you enter the action from MP3, he/she should probably tentatively put you possibly on a pair of aces for your raise, decreasing the value of his/her own ace. And the raise will make it at least a bit more difficult for anyone to continue.

If none of them has the missing ace, will they all fold, except maybe BB?*

That is the cogent question. I don't know the answer. I think it depends entirely on your opponents.

*(And then maybe you pick off BB with a continuation bet after a check on the second betting round).

Buzz