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Old 10-10-2007, 07:37 PM
Jbrochu Jbrochu is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
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Default Re: STTF SNG->cash thread

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How do I set up the math to figure out how often villain has to fold to Cha's $3.50 bet assuming villain actually is ahead 60% of the time, and of course villain never calls with a losing hand?

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expectation of a bet = (times he folds * pot we win) - (times he calls * how much we bet and lose)

E(bet) = (Fw * 4.25) - (Cw * 3.50) = 0 (for breakeven point)

Fw = % villain folds winning hand
Cw = % villain calls winning hand

Cw + Fw = 1

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Thank you very much.

So can I just set the right side of the equation = 1.70 in order to find out how often the villain needs to fold in order for betting with the worst hand to be equal to checking behind?
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