[Kneel B4 Zod]

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teams starting a SP on short rest have lost 17 of their last 21 in Division series play (over the last 10 years)

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I just looked briefly in BBTN, and the 'short rest' argument is somewhat debunked there (pitchers on short rest did worse, but not A LOT worse than on regular rest).

however, I don't think they factored in how much the opposing offense matters (ie it's probably easier to get away with short rest in the regular season vs an 'average' team than against an elite offense), and they didn't consider ALDS/ALCS macro strategy.

I still think starting Byrd/CC is the right move. if down 2-1, then CC/Carmona would probably be the right move, b/c the ALCS concerns are largely out the window. but to not consider the ALCS at all when up 2-1 is folly.