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Old 10-06-2007, 09:23 AM
GeeBeeQED GeeBeeQED is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 109
Default Re: NL100 - overpair reraisydaisy\'d on flop

Your first read is that your in a tiny NL game. The players sitting in a game like this typically call too much, they could be in there with anything. They are not very preceptive usually, TT is too weak a hand for the raise you made. I'd usually raise this hand more, maybe 6x against this caliber of competition. Occasionally call and check allong playing for a set.

He could have check raised you with overs like A-J thinking you were contiuation betting the pot trying to take it away from you, he could have 6 or a PP. All in all without any read from you on player quality, I see it random junk hand 20%, JT,QT or better upaired hand about 35% and smaller PP about 45%. I'm also worried about 45 here, not sure what risk to assign it. I'm not yet too concerned about a 6 in his hand. Turn brings a 4 and now he bets $15. I'm starting to zero in on two overs, following up with another bluff after the check raise to convince you your beaten (maybe 40%), I can only buy this if he respects your game very much. Second possibility that is getting stronger is the 4-5 preflop call or a 6 (about 60%). The turn gives all the small pp hands like 77,88,22,33 are now drawing to a straight. Hands like JJ also fit this betting pattern, I'm ruling out KK or AA here. The boards getting real bad and any 2,3,7,8 is going to cause me to fold to any significant bet on this hand.

On the river the K hits and he checks. You never reraised him, became a caller on the flop and turn, now the river hits and he checks. I'm certain now he has a small PP like 99,88,77,33,22 or JJ, or 45. If he's got a 6 in his hand and missed a bet on the river he's a total donk. You didn't show any indications your might make a river bet by your previous actions, why not bet and get a little more from you if he had the 6?

The case for 45 is if he had it, and he put you on AK, QK he would be worried the K counterfitted his 2 pair.

There is no chance he's playing 55 and is praying you have 6 in your hand expecting you to pot it on the end. He's should have small pp, JJ, 45 or overs here.

By in large I'd say he's weak and worried here but you don't have a hand strong enough to value bet on the end with the 66, straight possiblity and the K on the board. There is enough in the pot to check and see if your best. If you made a pot size bet here you'd be committed, smaller bets could be check raised all in and you'd have to fold. You must check.

Then again I've made a pretty stong case for the only hand he could have that I'm behind is JJ so I could value bet. I can't see him reraising with anything but a 6 or a king here. A rock couldn't reraise with the K even though your actions imply you don't have the 6.

Is it weak to want to get this hand shown down? That is what my feelings are here, I want to get it shown down. I might bet this on a more aggressive day. It's a tough hand really. If your villian had about 1/2 as many chips, I'd certainly put him all in or bet a substantial portion of his chips and be willing to call a reraise. Short stack players are often on a prayer.

What did he have?

Dave
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