[zer0]

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run expectancy charts have 1&2 no outs and 2&3 w/ 1 out essentially even. factor in success rate and IDK

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And factor in Sizemore vs. Droob.

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Wrong chart. Check RunEx for bases loaded 1 out since they are going to walk Sizemore.

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yea, i guess you're right, but you're only playing for the run on 3rd so the only thing loading the bases does is take the bat out of sizemore's hands and add a force at any base