[Buzz]

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The problem with b/c is you are putting 2 bb's in to get a showdown. I would estimate you will chop or win less than 25% after you are raised.

[/ QUOTE ]CJS - You probably would do better on the immediate hand to bet and then fold if raised. Chances are, an opponent who raises on the river has the nuts, or at least has a better hand than you. But not always.

But because you think someone who raises on the river has the nuts, this becomes a natural bluffing spot. Get it?

Although betting and planning to fold if raised probably will save you money on the current hand, it is very short-sighted, because if you play that way, your astute opponents will start raising almost every time you bet the river. And then you'll lose whole pots by folding non-nut winners on the river. Losing a whole pot by folding is called (and is) a "big mistake."

And the next time (and for a long time) when you play anyone who saw you play that way (bet and then fold to a raise), they'll remember you as a gullible fish and try to steal pots from you.

In other words, you're inviting more aggressive play against you in the future.

There's a way to turn that around and to your advantage if you're good enough. But in general, the game will be more difficult for you to play when you encourage your opponents to be more aggressive against you. More difficult means you'll make more mistakes yourself.

And even though you'll have the nuts sometimes when you bet the river, hopefully you won't play so tightly as to always have the nuts on the river. (If you do, you become very exploitable).

I have heard some people say you need the nuts on the river, and I've even seen it written in books about Omaha-8 by some authors, but that's baloney.

Does the nuts win a lot on the river? Of course it does.

Is the winner on the river always the nuts?

No.

Watch for yourself in real play - just one lap around the table in a real game - just to see how often a non-nut hand wins for high. If you think you always need the nuts to win in this game you're in for a big surprise! But I hasten to add that you do need the nuts in Omaha-8 much more than in Texas hold 'em.

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Are you losing that much value if you always c/c these situations?

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In general, yes, assuming you play well leading up to these situations. It depends a lot on who is still in the hand behind you.

Some (perhaps most) of your opponents will tend to check if they think you have and would call with a better hand. But probably most of these opponents who would check behind you would also call a bet just in case you didn't have a better hand. And probably most of your opponents who would bet if you checked will also simply call if you bet yourself. (Depends on your opponents, of course).

Other opponents will tend to bet after you check, even though they think you have a better hand. They are hoping to steal the pot from you. And if they succeed in doing that, they have "out-played" you. Some of these opponents might fold if you bet yourself, so that the only way you can get a bet out of them is to check and let them try to bluff. (And then you "pick off" someone's bluff by calling - or in other words, you "call" a bluff).

It's good for you to recognize the difference in your opponents in this regard. Tend to usually bet a fairly good hand (or the nuts) in front of opponents who would call a bet but who would check behind you. Tend to check that same hand against opponents who would probably fold if you bet, but who would read your check as weakness and who would bet, trying to steal. (That's called "inducing a bluff."

Sometimes it's simple to read opponents and other times it is not simple. They'll try various ways to fool you. What to do almost always depends on your read of your opponents. That means how each individual usually plays against this particular mix of active players and on how you think an opponent is playing this particular time, and with what particular cards.

But even if you think you have it figured out, tend to call that last bet (or raise) on the river if you have almost anything at all - and for a couple of good reasons.

1. By calling here you tend to deter future aggression by becoming a more difficult target for aggression.

2. This is poker. Even someone who seems like the Rock of Gibraltar may sometimes bluff. And this is one of the spots where your opponents will bluff (and you should often bluff here too).

Enough.

Buzz