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Old 10-04-2007, 05:42 AM
youtalkfunny youtalkfunny is offline
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Default Re: How often do the odds makers \"get it right\"?

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The opening lines are oddsmakers' best guess of how the game will turn out.

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When making a line, this is never a consideration.

It would be more accurate to say, "The opening lines are oddsmakers' best guess of how the public thinks the game will turn out."

If the public thinks an old and slow Muhammad Ali is better than a young and hungry Larry Holmes, the books will (and did) make Ali the favorite.

Oddsmakers are always asked for their predictions, and they often say, "I think the dog will win outright." Clearly, that's who he thinks will win--yet, he didn't make that team the favorite, because his opinion of the expected outcome is immaterial.
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