Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
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..overvalues the importance of reads. He's competent and thinking, but would probably get killed in a typical online game.
The BB is a white guy in his mid 30's.... He doesn't seem rich, and probably satellited into this event. He has had a beer or two.......isn't a high stakes player. He has been tight, solid, straightforward, and not tricky at all. He bluffed once vs the old lady. ...terrible by any means, and is rather good compared to the typical east coast satellite player.
Can you?
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What the heck. Here goes. He didn't buy in directly and doesn't have experience with big money on the line. If he had made an honest mistake, you would be able to spot it right away -- same way you spotted the PF raise.
I saw this mistake at the 05 WSOP and the guy (sat winner) who threw in a 5k chip into a 800 pot on the flop was mortified as soon as the chip went in.
So, you would see a huge physical tell if he really made a mistake. And once the crazy armenian stares him down and he doesn't flinch, he's very strong.
Now the bet isn't that huge relative to your stack. You could be wrong in the assessment and I don't think I could lay down the set of 8's at the turn. So, I call.
On the river, I reassess based on the bet size and body language. His inexperience will come out in flying colours when the river hits and you should be able to tell with a high degree of certainty if he has AA or KK.
Cheers
Magi
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