[stinkypete]

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I explained it above to scwhza. Imagine a HU hand where you put $150 in preflop with KK (vs AA) (with 20% equity) and your final $50 on the flop when you flop a set with 90% equity. According to the full pot method, if you lose, you will have gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$360. Yet in reality, you've only really gotten unlucky to the tune of ~$90, which is your expected earn from the flop action. So using this method can overestimate the magnitude of your luck significantly. You can see how this would affect setminers and the like where flop equity is usually very different to preflop equity. The way I do it ignores this portion of luck, so the number is more reflective of actual luck. If you want to use this kind of method, you're better off going with the "all in before river" checkbox on the analysis tab.

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that's just one example. consider the case where you put $199 in with KK vs K2o preflop. the flop comes rags and you each put in $1. turn and river come 22.

with your method you've only gotten unlucky to the tune of $2. in actuality you've gotten unlucky to the tune of almost $400.

i don't have time to figure out how to prove it right now, but accounting for all of the money is a better way to estimate your luck.

the all in before river calculates sklansky bux per street, right? that's a very poor estimate of luck in all but the very short term. it has a lot of bias, while pretending all the money went in on the last street has zero bias.