Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
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Here's my thinking. We put him on a very strong range preflop given the physical tells. That seems to me like TT+/AK. Now we get to the flop and it checks around. That doesnt seem unreasonable for basically his whole range. Given the player description he's quite likely to check hands that missed like TT-QQ, and it seems even the most straightforward player will consider slowplaying AA/KK/AK here. On the turn when you lead and he call/raises its pretty interesting. The fact that he doesnt seem upset really really really discounts a draw in my mind (although i find it hard pressed to include draws in my range to begin with). So that really leaves only AK/AA/KK and now TT. I have a hard time thinking that the player described would be peeling with JJ/QQ here, although I guess its possible. Against AA/KK/TT/AK you are pretty much 50/50 and it seems to me like he will value-bet his entire range on the river. So I think I'm calling here and check-calling the river unless an A/K rivers. I may consider some sort of river bluff if a q/j hits...although I imagine it would have to be a pretty much pot sized bet to get it to work.
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People don't angle-shoot to build a pot with top two pair with deep money. They do with top set. I don't think AK is as likely as one of TT/KK/AK, just because you get AK almost as often as TT/KK/AK.
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