Re: Q8 rivers top pair in orphan pot
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A bluff on the turn works more often than you'd think. The fact that the pot is so small works in my favor since people don't even have enough odds to draw to a flush. Since I got a free play from the BB, I can easily have a 4. My cards don't matter here, what matters is that my opponents think they are drawing almost dead in a very small pot.
My thinking on the river was this: Nobody has 9x since even these passive opponents bet the flop with that (or at least the turn). Same goes for 7x, the may not bet the flop but the probably still bet the turn. While I have top pair here, what worse hands are going to call a bet here? I may get curiosity calls from ace-high (or 55,66) but that's it, maybe another Qx.
problem is that there are almost no hands which are going to bet here, for exactly the same reasons that they won't call. Still, a bet here is better than a check-call since there are slightly more hands which are going to call a bet compared to hands that will bet themselves.
Anyway, I checked, CO bets, I call and CO shows A6o. (He probably would have called also if I had bet). I should have bet here but the mistake was very small.
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I hate almost everything in this post. Not betting river and getting called by Ax is a big mistake. And bluffing turn in tiny multiwaypot is very bad. Your goal is not to win many pots it's to win a lot of money. The award of succeeding with the bluff is almost non-existing... The reward of valuebetting river is very real...
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