[PokerForMath]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a fold, and unless I was getting a pretty clear anxiousness tell from my opponent, I would consider checking the river. He seems to have an 8, which would point towards betting. But, most would not be totally cool calling the 1200 on the turn with 98 or less (they'd do it but you'd see some tension as they realize that you probably have an 8 also and have position with a lot more money to bet). His "thoughtful" call IMO is rarely anything less than AK, and usually, it's a medium 8.

Here's why: he has to have an 8 or a very strong ace to call on the flop. You could be betting a flush draw or even air some of the time, but he has to worry about the players behind him on this paired flop. He'll rarely have a flush draw, c/c'ing your bet from the SB. So, he probably has an 8. When he c/c's your pot bet on the turn, we rule out flush draws completely for solid players; hopefully people agree with this, because it seems very obv to me and I hate being wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] When he thoughtfully calls my bet, I'm a little concerned. The sidecards are all pretty plausible to accompany an 8: A, 7, and then J on the river, though he just completed the straddle from the SB in a limped pot, so admittedly many players can have a wide variety of 8s.

When he c/r's the river, there is one legit hand you can beat: Q8 in the hands of a pretty agg player who really hunts for thin value *might* play this way. Other than that, he has to be bluffing or be full. He shouldn't put you on a bluff, since he looks pretty strong here. I expect to see 87 a lot here. Maybe he was rope-a-doping you with AQ or 98 up to the river, allowing you to semi-bluff or bet an Ace hard. But, when he c/r's the river, as opposed to c/c'ing or simply donking the river for value, it's almost never a bluff. Good players are capable of it if they realize (probably through physical reads) that you're not full, but a bluff here is really rare with this line IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome