[Josem]

firstly, i think it is beautiful that we're discussing whether the 25 hands is a 1 in 100,000 event, or a 1 in 10billion event.

to clarify, you would need to have 100,000 sets of 25 hands to presumably replicate it.

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Now, if we have other reasons to think somebody's cheating (which we do here, of course), that becomes the hypothesis. Then somebody comes along and says "Hey, dude, he might have just happened to fold exactly those times AA-JJ came up." Then we say, "No way, dude, that's 1 in 10 billion."

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i think that's the difference - my hypothesis is:
"what are the chances that villain makes the 'right' decision <u>given</u> the cards that were dealt?"

i think your hypothesis is:
"what are the chances that villain makes the 'right' decision <u>and</u> the cards are dealt in that way?"



i prefer my hypothesis because i don't care about the luck of the cards falling in that particular way. i'm only interested in looking at the chances of the villain responding as he did.