Re: Live NYC - 25/50 with trips
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obviously not easy to break down so finely, but hwat percent of the time is this a boat? a naked 8? a straight? a bluff against a relative unknown in your experience?
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again, the breakdown is going to depend on what kind of line he thinks you take here. you limped from the button ("position limp") then he check calls every street. his pre-flop action is easily consistent with everything but JJ, AA (AA, JJ he better KNOW the bb is going to pop it).
You are the best possible trips and lose to every boat.
Hero ahead of:
trips:
Q8, T8, 98, 68, 58, 48, 38, 28 (32 combinations)
two pair:
J7, A7, AJ (27)
straight:
9T (16)
Hero behind boats:
A8, J8, 78, 77 (12)
If he puts you on < trips, then he jams with any trips or better. So I see it breaking down exactly along the lines of the math: 32/44 = 8/11 times he has (75%) of the time you have him, 25% of the time he has you. Maybe its a little less if you see him dumping 28, 38, etc, but based on his position, I see him in with any of those hands.
Throw in even a small possibility he sees on on a bluff, then throw in two pair and straight possibilities and you are way ahead.
Going back to start, if he sees you as checking behind a middle trips, then K8 is the worst hand you show up with here and I don't see a cr ai with < a boat.
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