[Assani Fisher]

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Assani... why Denver @ -3? I jumped on the Jags at +3.5 because -3 for Denver is right where I thought the line should be.

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I feel as if I spent a ton of time discussing that in an earlier post...perhaps it just got lost in all of the nonsense here though. Here was what I said:




The very first line that jumped out to me was Denver -3 at home against Jacksonville. If you couldn't already tell by my picking against them the first two weeks, I think Jacksonville is tremendously overrated.

FACT: Jacksonville lost their last 3 games last year
FACT: Jacksonville has failed to cover the spread in either game this year
FACT: The last time these two teams played, Denver won 20-7 in Jacksonville
FACT: Through two games this year Jacksonville has given up the most rushing yards in the league, while through two games this year Denver has rushed for the third most yards in the league.

IMHO Jacksonville is simply not a very good team. I don't know what their schedule looks like off-hand, so I'm not going to make an exact prediction on their record, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them as a 6-10 team. They just barely squeaked by a horrile ATL team at home last week. Why exactly are they only 3 point underdogs on the road(which means the teams would be even on a neutral field)?

As for Denver, I think many people are guilty of just looking at the scoreboard regarding them. People think "they barely beat two bad teams, so they can't be that good." What people don't realize is that Denver has moved the ball very well and stopped the other team very well, but they've struggled inside the red zone(on both sides of the football). I believe that is just variance and bad luck so far. Allow me to quote two posts on footballguys from moleculo and SSOG, which I believe sum up my viewpoints well:

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Denver has managed 400+ yards in both games. Denver leads the league in yards gained, and is 3rd in yards allowed. Denver is top 5 in rushing and passing yards per game, and first is passing yards allowed. On the other hand, Denver has only scored 3 TD's so far - 20th in the league, and is 27th in rushing D.

This offense is clicking at a high level so far, but simply failed to punch it in the end zone. Counting OT, Denver had five trips inside the 10, with three FG's yesterday. That will change - at least it better.

Of course, the raiders and the Bills aren't exactly cream of the crop teams. The Den O has been clicking the way one would expect them to. A mediocre O would put up some yards against these teams. What is concerning is the lack of TD's and the run D. both of these can haunt a team come playoff time, but there is plenty of time to fix.

Denver has struggled opening the season on the road the past few years - dropping games vs Mia and StL, specifically. While they should have killed the Bills, I was pleased with the win. The raiders always play the Broncos tough - divisional rivalry and all that.

Bottom line is that this team is finding a way to win. winning ugly is still winning. Wins like these will mean alot come playoff push time.

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Out of curiousity, are you watching the games, or are you basing that solely off of margin of victory and opponent faced? This isn't one of those "you obviously aren't watching the games!" accusations, I was just honestly curious. As a Broncos fan, I have to say, if you look at anything other than the actual score, you'd swear Denver won those two games by 40 combined points. I mean, outgaining Buffalo by 300 yards? Allowing 125 net passing yards in 130 minutes?

Denver is #1 in the NFL in yards per game (#5 in passing yards, #4 in rushing yards). Denver is #3 in the NFL in yards allowed per game (with Philly yet to play, so they'll likely be #2 in yards allowed per game after tonight), allowing 62.5 yards per game passing despite an 12% more football than the average NFL team (thanks to the OT). Denver has a positive turnover differential and a positive sack differential (including ranking 7th in the league in sacks and 3rd in the league in INTs). If this is the most unimpressive 2-0 start you've ever seen, I would suggest that maybe you haven't seen many 2-0 starts.

If Philly allows more than 222 yards tonight, then Denver and New England will be #1 and #2 in terms of yards per game and yards allowed per game. If Denver hadn't played overtime, it would have actually been #1 in both categories (and yes, that's even discounting the yards that Denver itself gained in overtime).

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As with all game, I will rethink things throughout the week, but as of now I can't see any reason why Denver -3 isn't a great pick.