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Probably a guess, aka. the science known as history.

Jokes aside Vhawk, I def. get what you are trying to say, but I think you're being harsh. I think some of the debaters here are talking abit in circles and that a usable opinion lies somewhere in the middle, and that there is little value in quarreling about it.

For instance we could assume a historical Jesus gave birth to some of stories that would later become legends in the bible. Hence the legends to some degree could reflect on this character's messages/ideology.

I'm not saying it IS so, but it is a plausible theory that both these things can work in tandem. It certainly is something that one often assumes has happened before in history (Real historic characters growing into spiritual legends.) A typical example would for example be Gilgamesh, which many historians believe have existed, but who also is a character having 'godlike' abilities in the legends about him. You can also find much later examples, like for example in people made saints etc.

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Why would we think any of those were based on THAT Jesus, the one who the Romans record?

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Well, since we're now essentially discussing history you know as well as me that I can't really argue this too hard, history is not an exact science. For anyone to be bombastic and hightly argumentative here is probably wrong, it is probably better to have a set of educated 'what if' scenarios and adjust those as we get better information.