Re: Absolute Cheating
I've just had a discussion with someone who doesn't understand the statistical evidence. And I thought of a method to persuade such people on the base of some common sense.
If someone could try and reproduce that exact strategy at microlimits over a considerable sample of hands it could serve as a very good point for a comparison. The essential points:
1. reproduce the VPIP figures, making some occasional folds preflop trying to guess when your opponents have a big hand.
2. reproduce the aggression by streets and especially the river infinite aggression factor.
Collect as much hands as possible and try to find a region with similar winrate/other states. Basically, we will see a falling curve in the graph for the winnings, and we will try to see if there are short periods when we can win money using this strategy. (I guess that such stretches don't last more than 20 hands in the 10000 sample).
I also think that someone with the stats on the cheaters should post standard deviation figures for these guys and the graph for the winnings, I suspect that we will see an anomaly in SD too.
|