Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*
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Of course the Red Sox *could* win a 7-game series agianst anyone in baseball, but you can't really think they'd be a favorite over the Yankees in a 7-gamer right now, can you?
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If everyone's healthy, and Boston has home-ice, then I'd certainly make Boston the favorite in a seven-game series.
Not a big favorite by any means. I'd probably open it at -120 and EV. It would be higher, if the public wasn't so fond of the legend of the NY Yankees.
(That's not the Sox Fan in me talking, but the old school oddsmaker.)
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Maybe it was the Sox Fan in me.
I asked the sharpest oddsmaker in Las Vegas what he would make the price on an ALCS between NYY and BOS, assuming all players were healthy, and BOS had home-ice.
He said simply, "Yankees -155".
Like I said, he's the sharpest guy in the business. I'd give his opinion about 10x the weight that I would give my own. Please disregard my "BOS -120" pipedream.
(But if the price comes that high, I'm putting my money where my mouth is, and backing my opinion with cash.)
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