Re: Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid
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There must be some research done on the EV of this somewhere??? There has to be a reason that at least some NFL coaches don't do this.
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I think it's to avoid explaining it to the media if it costs you the game. If you do it and win, you're a genius. If you do it and lose, you're an even bigger idiot. Media and fans don't understand variance and results-oriented-thinking, so coaches take the safe route.
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I think eventually, within 10 years or so, some coach is going to come along and make correct but non-conventional wisdom and really expose some of this stuff. Then he'll have to deal with complaints from the NFLPA on behalf of the punters of the world.
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The problem is, (and I'll just make up some useless random numbers to illustrate) say you have conventional wisdom Plan A, which works 45% of the time, and you have theoretically optimal Plan B, which works 55% of the time. This is a pretty significant edge, over the course of a season, but this edge is nowhere NEAR as big as the confirmation bias and recall bias that the media and the average sports fan have. You'd need a spread much larger than 10%, imo. Just look at kickers, people only remember the misses. This guy is going to have to be ridiculously successful (i.e. run really hot, because while this strategy is better it isn't WAY better) or he is going to be crucified. Then take into consideration how much he has to gain versus how much he has to lose. Play it straight, give up some edge, and you can still win, and won't be fired. Play it optimally, and while you should win a little bit more often, you are going to be fired WAY more often. It just isn't even close to worth it.
You gotta remember, the incentives for coaches are not about winning games, they are about keeping their jobs or getting better jobs. This is true of players also. For the MOST part, winning games = keeping your job, but this isn't always true. These plays are -EV for coaches, even if they are +EV for teams, because of the gross imbalance of outcomes.
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