Re: JJ would you have played it differently?
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I would rather bet-fold the turn with confidence that he's not bluffing than check and play the "What is his bluffing frequency?" game.
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But the cost of him valuebetting river is 0 right since we would have payed that bet on the turn anyway.
What must be considered in order to chose between betting or checking on the turn is not Vills valuebet to bluff ratio on the river but rather Vils river bet (hands that we beat) to call with a worse hand on turn ratio. Right?
[edit] I'm assuming the pot is small [/edit]
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Sort of... what you're missing are the situations like OP where villain doesn't bet the river. If he has a hand that he wants to show down but isn't willing to bet, then you miss out on the turn value bet. I just don't think that the bluffing frequency is high enough to overcome that loss of value (as small as it is), especially since the pot is small and I don't even know if a generic player bets his hand 20% of the time.
This is a spot like in blackjack where you hit on a 16 against a dealer 10 because you expect to lose less than if you just stand. You're not super-pleased with it, but it's better than the alternative.
When in doubt, value bet > checking to induce a bluff. With such a small pot and no read on villain, I'm value betting and hoping to get called by flush draws, medium pocket pairs, and QJ/QT/JT.
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