Re: JJ would you have played it differently?
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To you guys who bets the turn.
What worse hand do you expect to get called with?
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Medium pocket pairs and a flush draw.
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How many worse hands do you think he has where handing out free cards is a mistake?
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That backdoor flush draw is halfway there if he made a loose flop peel. But I don't think that's the point.
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How often do you think he will bluff the river if we check the turn?
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Probably not as often as he value bets the river with Ax/Kx.
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I dont think checking is a mistake. There are plenty of hands he will fold to a bet but bluff with on the river.
The pot is smallish so your primary goal should be to get more bets into the pot. If he bluffs a lot when turn gets checked through you should consider a value check.
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Your primary goal is to avoid making a mistake and to induce mistakes. This is the type of situation where it's rare you'll get in any more money when you have the best hand. I would rather bet-fold the turn with confidence that he's not bluffing than check and play the "What is his bluffing frequency?" game.
As you say, it's a small pot. But this cuts back against your plan because it means that villain must be bluffing about 20% of the time for your bluff-inducing check to have value.
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