[Oink]

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How many worse hands do you think he has where handing out free cards is a mistake?

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Every Q has 6 outs against us. If he folds one I'd consider that a success even if the pot is only 4BB.

Qhxh, QJ have even more outs (even though those are unlikely)

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- Qx

In a 4 BB pot you would much rather have him bluff bet the river than have him fold a 6 outer.

That said he needs to bluff bet it fairly often for it to better to check.


- Q high fd.

If he calls that - and I think we can assume that he will - its of course nice to get some value. But again if he will bluff bet the river for you it doesnt really matter when the bet goes in. If you win the hand you win 1 bet and if he sucks out you loose 1 bet.


A basic thing to think about: If your hand isnt good enough to valuebet again on the river you should strongly consider to check the turn.

- A lot of the worse hands that you miss value from on the turn will bet the river. So you win 1 bet anyways

- You will not get c/r and save 2 bets when you were gonna call down a c/r.

- You will see the river with your x outs and not get raised of the hand when you were gonna fold to a c/r.

- When villain was gonna c/f the turn you will sometimes win 1 bet on the river when he bluffs.


If you think you have a valuebet again on the river all those things does not apply as you will loose value from not valuebetting the turn.