Re: NL25 - river play
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I do not fully agree. In my opinion, you should try to sort out which of your opponents are the highly exploitable players and which of your opponents are to be treated with more care. At a table with eight or nine other players, that's usually more than enough of a challenge for me. Playing deceptive poker against a player who clearly is too loose or too tight regardless of how you play yourself is just a waste of energy.
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Yes, you make a good point. My plate is also full trying to play the player in a 9-handed game. This is probably one of the primary areas where I should concentrate at this stage in my game.
What I was more referring to though was that a little tiny bet like the flop here isn't a good habit to get into with any player as it won't serve you well as you move up. I prefer to practice and hone skills which will.
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I don't consider appearing to be weak a bad thing in this spot. Do you? If so: why so? At NL25 most players are not capable of pulling off a huge bluff raise on the flop and if they are, they do it too often, making it identifiable.
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I'm not sure this is true. I think many players (myself included) will look you up with a raise on the flop since you've appeared weak. Worse, you really can't call the raise as you have no idea whether the villain is playing you or actually has a hand.
Moreover, I much prefer to have an aggressive image at the table rather than a mousy one. An aggressive image will allow you to have more respect at the table, your c-bets will garner you a wider berth, and you will therefore pick up more pots even when you have little or nothing. All of this is good.
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I am worried about the odds I give my opponent, though. Let’s assume he would play K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] the following way:
He would call the $1.25 on the flop.
If a J comes, he would, on the average, win an additional bet of $2.25 on the turn and another $6.50 on the river, giving him $13 to shoot for. This happens 4/45 times.
If a non-J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes, this would add a flush draw in addition to his straight draw. I would bet $2.25 into a $5.50 pot.
Let’s say he would call in this spot. On the river another [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] appears. MP2 would then extract another $6.50 from me. This would happen (9/45)*(8/44) of the time and would also give him $13 to shoot for.
On the other hand, let’s assume I would win the $5.50 pot on the turn if neither a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] nor a J comes on the turn and I would win the $10 pot on the river if a non-J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes on the turn, but no [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes on the river.
EV(MP2)=4/45*$13+(9/45)*(8/44)*$13-$1.25*(45-(4+9))/45-($1.25+2.25)*(9/45)*((44-8)/44)=$0.52
I did not take into account the rake, the fact the if MP2 makes a flush, I can make a full house, or the fact that I can make a back door (straight) flush if a J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] comes. I possibly overlooked some other things. Please do not hesitate to let me know if you consider some of my other assumptions and simplifications unrealistic.
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I looked at this a bit and don't see any glaring errors. I can't state definitively that it is correct, but I think we pretty much agree that the bet is fairly borderline strictly from an odds perspective.
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I did say that I don't give my opponents credit for considering bet sizes very much, which means that MP2 would call a $2 bet if he would call a $1.25 bet. And since a $2 bet on the flop would render MP2's EV negative in the above calcutation, I am convinced that indeed a $2 bet on the flop is better, at least better than a $1.25 bet.
I will bet more in similar situations in the future. You convinced me in that respect.
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Again, I think your reasoning is sound -- particularly since we ultimately agree. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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