Re: NL25 - river play
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In this hand, MP2 and I see the flop just the two of us and the flop is fairly ragged. There are no possible flush draws nor are there any possible open-enders or double gut shot straight draws. I have top pair, top kicker. So either I have the best have and will be highly like to keep having the best hand on both the turn and the river or I have the worst hand and will keep it on the last two streets. That's why I think a bet of just below half the pot is appropriate. The bet was intended as a value bet. If the board texture were such that there was a possible flush draw, for instance, I would have bet a larger amount: about 3/4 of the pot, as you proposed. However, there is no flush draw possible here.
On the other hand, I am more often criticised on the 2+2 forum for not betting enough and like everyone on this forum, I'm trying to learn something here. So do you think that, if MP2 would hold, say, K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], he would have proper odds on the flop to call? If so, you may convince me to bet more in similar situations in the future.
Your opinion appears to be that MP2 would play his hand in a very different way if my bets were larger. Why do you give most of the NL25 players credit for considering bet sizes? The fact that you and I consider bet sizes does not mean that our opponents, who do not study the game as well as we do, also do so.
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I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] a good debate, so let's Gogogogogogogogo! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
Seriously, as I think about what suggestions to make it helps me clarify my thoughts, and your questions and skepticism allow me to flesh out my thoughts and ideas. It's definitely a win-win participating on the forum.
Okay, so back to the hand...
I figured the reason why you bet so low was exactly what you said. I also agree 100% that it is easy to begin to think about a hand and then realize that you are so far above what the villain is thinking that it just becomes frustrating. All too often the villain isn't thinking anything at all. However, while I play in the micros part of what I'm doing is trying to get ready for the higher levels. Doing this includes trying to give the villain credit for 1/2 of a brain, even though he likely isn't using it.
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I do not fully agree. In my opinion, you should try to sort out which of your opponents are the highly exploitable players and which of your opponents are to be treated with more care. At a table with eight or nine other players, that's usually more than enough of a challenge for me. Playing deceptive poker against a player who clearly is too loose or too tight regardless of how you play yourself is just a waste of energy.
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In my analysis of this hand I noted that there was no FD here, so I agree that this flop is drier than some. However, villains are fairly used to larger c-bets. When they see smaller I think it suggests that we are weak. Then we run the risk of not only being outdrawn but also of having villain try to bluff us off of our hand on a later street. You are the pfr'er, are OOP, and want to keep control of the hand. Betting smallish like this is probably borderline with actual odds since, although I think KT is a very likely possibility, villain only has like 16% of hitting a GSSD. If we throw in the BDFD then he has more but it's still not too huge.
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I don't consider appearing to be weak a bad thing in this spot. Do you? If so: why so? At NL25 most players are not capable of pulling off a huge bluff raise on the flop and if they are, they do it too often, making it identifiable.
I am worried about the odds I give my opponent, though. Let’s assume he would play K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] the following way:
He would call the $1.25 on the flop.
If a J comes, he would, on the average, win an additional bet of $2.25 on the turn and another $6.50 on the river, giving him $13 to shoot for. This happens 4/45 times.
If a non-J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes, this would add a flush draw in addition to his straight draw. I would bet $2.25 into a $5.50 pot.
Let’s say he would call in this spot. On the river another [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] appears. MP2 would then extract another $6.50 from me. This would happen (9/45)*(8/44) of the time and would also give him $13 to shoot for.
On the other hand, let’s assume I would win the $5.50 pot on the turn if neither a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] nor a J comes on the turn and I would win the $10 pot on the river if a non-J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes on the turn, but no [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes on the river.
EV(MP2)=4/45*$13+(9/45)*(8/44)*$13-$1.25*(45-(4+9))/45-($1.25+2.25)*(9/45)*((44-8)/44)=$0.52
I did not take into account the rake, the fact the if MP2 makes a flush, I can make a full house, or the fact that I can make a back door (straight) flush if a J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] comes. I possibly overlooked some other things. Please do not hesitate to let me know if you consider some of my other assumptions and simplifications unrealistic.
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OTOH, villains do like to call. They know you only hit about 33% of the time on the flop and a weaker A or MP often does call. We want to be able to extract the most out of these hands without having them turn around later and bite us with a bluff.
So, IMO this means betting a bit more than you did. If you'll look back at my suggestion you'll notice that I actually said 2/3 pot on the flop was fine on this board. Generally I do bet 3/4 but this board is a rainbow, so I feel like 2/3 is sufficient. Doing this absolutely charges villain an incorrect price to call with any draw, gets maximum value from a weaker holding, and it doesn't beg a more savvy villain to raise you somewhere along the way with a lesser hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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I did say that I don't give my opponents credit for considering bet sizes very much, which means that MP2 would call a $2 bet if he would call a $1.25 bet. And since a $2 bet on the flop would render MP2's EV negative in the above calcutation, I am convinced that indeed a $2 bet on the flop is better, at least better than a $1.25 bet.
I will bet more in similar situations in the future. You convinced me in that respect.
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