[svj]

Normally, I would say that two strikers can't really have more than a 75% chance of a win on one guy, due to factors like slips, lucky punches, etc. Like what Jardine did to Forrest, Serra to GSP, etc.

However, I expect Chuck to do his usual counter-punch, and Jardine to charge right into it, flailing wildly.

I think Liddell will pick Jardine apart the same way that Griffin did. But Chuck's skill level is much, much higher than Griffin's. I think he's smart and skilled enough not to get caught. And a strong enough chin to survive it, even if he does. Especially now that he's been knocked out. I expect he will be very conscious of that being repeated.

I think the value is on Chuck here.



Rua and Forrest on the other hand...

Rua will not be allowed to kick or stomp grounded opponents, a large portion of his offence. A good full-body-weight heel to the gut kicks the hell out of anyone's gas tank. Not an option here.

Elbows shouldn't be a problem. Chute Boxe has plenty of experience with that.

Forrest, since around Griffin/Bonnar 2, has been a much more disciplined striker, preferring to pick his shots, sticking and moving. Using lots of long-range leg kicks. This is exactly what he's going to need for Rua.

The octagon is a larger structure than the ring, and has no definitive corners, making it more difficult for Rua to catch Griffin, or trap him into a corner.

The other factor working in Griffin's favor is the 5 minute round. He can have a much easier time out-pointing Rua in a 5 minute round as opposed to a 10 minute round, where Rua would almost certainly catch up to and outclass him. But it is conceivable Griffin can keep out of reach for 5 minutes at a stretch.

I expect Rua to win, but I think the +EV bet is a small bet on Griffin.