Re: Payout Structure
we are highly likely to just steal the blinds here and they are huge. Our plan shouldnt really ever be to fold into the money, all we do is limit our ability to make the big bucks. Tournament ROI is all about the top couple spots. We take risks and gambles to try to secure the first and second places more often than our opponents. SO we push A9s utg with 5bb and less. many times we get called by an underpair and were a good coinflip with plenty of overlay. sometimes we face a King high hand and were a 60/40. Very occasionally were dominated by a bigger ace and we still have a 30% chance to win the pot, and with that much in the pot already its a very good gamble.
Some math I was showing some friends... Lets say tournaments are all just coinflips for stacks. If a tournament is 132 people , if we double up 7 times, we win the tournament having all the chips.
Each person might normally have a 50 50 shot of doubling up, but lets say we go for a thin edge, and we are able to get a 55% chance to double up most of the time, by playing good situations, by stealing some, by having the best of it when we call pushes. Now we are able to land 7 double ups 1.5% of the time instead of 7.8% of the time that most people do. We end up winning first twice as much as the next guy (and second, and third, and so on).. our tournament ROI is now 100%. Now all we need to do is make sure that when we are "flipping for stacks" that we have enough edge that we are 55% to double up. One way to do this is to have the blinds be 10% of our stack when we push a nearly optimal +cEV push. we may be 50/50 against any range that calls us or better, but we are 55% to double up. We only need 7 of them, and it really doesnt matter much when they come. Sometimes we can be favored 80/20, but its impossible to know ahead of time when we push QQ if were up against 33 or AK, we want to NET OUT to being 55% to double up. Its almost theoretically impossible to get much higher... Like we can wait to go all in until after the flop, but we need to be 60/40 favorites post flop to be much ahead of the 55% range, and who goes all in with us with under 10 outs? doesnt happen much... When are we favored that much preflop? Not often, since all hands have a decent chance to win with 5 cards to come. So we shoot for going all in post flop whenever we have that same likely hood of a 10% edge to double up.
4Card
|