[billygrippo]

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suppose player 1 is a striker and player 2 is a submission expert... who is the higher variance fighter? the obvious answer is that there is no way to possibly conclude based on the evidence that one's playing style has more variance than the other.

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i would argue that an expert at striking has higher variance than a ground expert

there is an element of luck in striking that doesnt carry over well into ground work

edit:

maybe i read your post wrong but what im saying is:

good striker vs good striker = higher variance

good grappling vs good grappling = lower variance