[zooot]

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That's the way the all-in-calc program does it, but I don't like it. Say for example you put in $380 preflop as a 5:1 dog, and then your final $20 on the flop (this happens sometimes) as a 9:1 favorite. If you lose, did you really get unlucky for $720-odd dollars? That's the problem with basing it on the entire pot size.

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it's true that sometimes in your example the guy who was a 9:1 favorite was actually a 5:1 dog preflop. but it's much more likely that the 9:1 flop favorite was also the 5:1 preflop favorite.

your way of calculating luck magnitude basically assumes that the money that went in preflop went in as 50-50. the other way basically assumes that if the flop money went in as 80-20 then the preflop money went in 80-20 also. that seems more right to me but i think it's just a matter of preference.

the biggest reason i want to see your program done in the same way as all-in-calc is so that i can run them both on the same database and see how close they are to agreeing. (you would also need an option for ignoring 3-way pots for this to really work).

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I am obv a moran. Plz help me understand.

Drastic Example:

1k effective, you almost-shove for $999 preflop and leave $1 behind to be a prick. Your 12-tabling opponent doesn’t realize the $1 and clicks CALL. Flop comes down and you guys get the last $2 in. You are a 9:1 favorite on the Flop. It sounds like this program calculates your expectation in this case as .90 * $2 = $1.80. (ignore blinds/rake for example's sake).

Based on one hand of play:

Total Winnings= $2k.
Showdown Winnings = $2k.
Expectation = $1.80???

So you’re running mad hot? This makes no sense. I am obv misunderstanding the post. Plz help me.

Thanks