Re: UFC 76
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Especially with the way both forrest and shogun tend to fight, this could turn into a simple brawl/slugfest standing, and brawls are unpredictable.
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Forrest Griffin
14-4-0
Wins
3 (T)KOs
6 Submissions
5 Decisions
Losses
2 (T)KOs
2 Decisions
Mauricio Shogun Rua
16-2-0
Wins
13 (T)KOs
1 Submission
2 Decisions
Losses
1 (T)KO
1 Submission
Let's look into those a little bit. Forrest is 5-2 in the UFC with a close loss to Tito that he could have won, a loss to Jardine that I haven't seen, a close win against Bonnar at the TUF finale that I thought Bonnar won, and most recently a decision win against Hector Ramirez that I also haven't seen.
For as much as he likes to throw, he only has 3 wins by T(KO) (with one by cut). It doesn't appear he has enough punching power to knock guys out. He has 6 submissions, only one of which has come in the UFC. I would be shocked to see Griffin sub Rua here.
Shogun, on the other hand, went 12-1 in Pride. His only loss was a freak accident against Coleman (did Shogun fight as a HW here?) with wins over Alistair Overeem x2, Nakamura, Randleman, Rogerio Nogueira, and Rampage. He stops almost 90% of his fights (with his decisions coming against Nakamura and Nogueira), and 11 of his fights are stopped before the 5 minute mark.
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How many times has a great striker or dominant guy been KO'd or beaten decisively by an 'inferior' opponent this year?
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I don't know, how many?
Cro Cop lost to Gonzaga because he had no answers for elbows on the ground and the cage. He lost to Kongo because he broke a rib in round 1, probably wasn't there mentally, and probably is on the downside of his career.
Sylvia lost to Couture because Randy is right up there with Fedor in terms of gameplanning.
Gomi lost to a (very underrated) Nick Diaz in a slug fest that he obviously didn't train for.
Arona and Rogerio lost to an apparent horse in Sokoudjou.
Serra beat GSP in one of the few fights that still looks crazy months later.
I agree with you that fights are probably more high variance than we like to think, but I don't agree with your assessment of the fight.
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