Here's a hand that I analyzed recently by assigning a calling range for my opponent if I were to shove and used Pokerstove to calculate my equity against it. Hopefully you guys could provide comments on the positive/negative aspects of it. DISCLAIMER: preflop is probably bad.
EXAMPLE HAND:
Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $41.25
Hero: $42.50
CO: $83.70
Button: $89.15
SB: $32.35
BB: $28.20
Pre-flop: (
6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>,
4 folds, UTG calls.
Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (
$4.75, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $9</font> . . .
I haven't played many hands with this villain so I can't get a good read on his check-raising range.
However, up to this point I had been playing pretty aggressively and so I thought besides his obvious big hands he might also check-raise here sometimes as a bluff.
If he calls my jam, he might have something like:
9c9s,9d9s,9h9s,88-77,33,A9s,K9s,T8s,98s,97s, and A9o.
This range consists of:
A few combos of top set, middle and bottom set, top two, a couple combos of T8, the strongest top pairs, and occasionally he will have played a really weird overpair. He also might sometimes stacks off with second pair: 88.
My equity in this case is around 34%.
Given that I have 34% equity when called, he has to fold here greater than 30% of the time for me to start showing a profit on a shove.
Questions:
a) with such little info to act on, is it reasonable to assume that my opponent will fold > 30% of the time with this action sequence?
b) what is a decent estimate of an average opponent's check-raising range on this board with this preflop/flop action?
c) if I do shove, is the calling range I've assigned to my opponent a decent one?
Any comments on my assumptions or methods would be great.