Re: AQ, against LAG HU
[ QUOTE ]
Why cant villain be calling this flop with 2 overs and betting river because Ive checked two streets to him OOP
[/ QUOTE ]
He can have anything really, it's just a question of his range and whether you beat that range often enough to make calling +EV. It's possible he called w/2 overs, but then he'll often take a stab on the turn once you check to him. It is true that he might check behind the turn and then finally take a stab at the river. But it's also very probable that he had a small pp and checked the turn because he feared you were slowplaying a bigger PP and were looking to stack-a-donk him.
Now that you checked twice, he will probably bet all his pairs for value because your hand is pretty much face up by now as a big ace that missed.
Also, both straight draws have you beat.
He's offering you 1:2.6 odds on a call so you have to be right 27% of the time. I don't think that missed overs that wait till the turn to bluff is 27% of his range so therefore I'd probably fold. It's probably close though.
|