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Old 09-10-2007, 09:47 AM
Jbrochu Jbrochu is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
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Default Re: Some top players dislike NLHTAP: Why?

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Many of these conclusions are not correct in many situations.

The most glaring, obvious one being to shove all in on the river with the nuts.

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When you value bet, your expectation is:

P(You are Called) x (Amount you Bet).

So if you think there is a good chance you will be looked up with a big bet, your expectation is often higher betting big for value. The intuitive belief is often the opposite, namely that value betting is a "milking" process where you bet small to assure gain from a big hand. Keeping the above formula in mind will certainly benefit your value bets, and I think it was an excellent point made in the book.

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That wasn't the point at all. The point made was that sometimes betting big has higher EV than betting small even if the chance the big bet gets called is very small.

Example:

Betting 10,000 and getting called 20% of the time has an expectation of 2,000 and is better than betting 2,000 and and getting called 80% of the time because that only has an expectation of 1,600.

The problem I have with that theory is you then have to make big bluffs or semibluffs as well or the big bets will never get paid except against brain dead opponents.

If you make reasonable sized value bets on the river (1/2 pot to full pot) then you can also make bluffs of that size.
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