Re: 200NL- Squeeze QQ and BB shoves
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Well the main point is the call is -EV if you agree with the range and consider it unweighted.
The second, less important point is that I'd weight things towards KK+ and away from AK, which makes it a easier fold.
Your point about AK calling = bad play, probably not very relevant to OP's decision. If you said that AK is more likely to push than KK+, then it would be relevant, since it weights things differently.
But anyway, please explain why calling with AK in position is a bad play here, rather than just dismissing it?
My thoughts on this fairly irrelevant comment -- Facing an oop raise, he's probably up against {QQ+, AK}. If he pushes he'll be called by KK+, to which he'll be a heavy underdog. He might also get called by AK, to which he's even. And QQ appears to be a slight fold situation. So, he's even or a big dog most of the time he's called, and he wins $48 otherwise.
On the other hand, if he calls in position with AKs and totally misses the flop, he can fold safely to that range, since he's now a huge dog. If he spikes an A and/or flush draw, and no Q or K falls, then it's all in, since it's more likely your a favorite at this point. What's your take?
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When he shoves AK he gets people like me to fold QQ, JJ, TT etc. By just calling PF he's going to be missing 2/3's of flops and even when he hits he may not get paid off by TT-QQ.
I folded because we had no history, and knew nothing about eachother. Not sure if he'd make this play w/ JJ against an unknown. Looking back I'd probably call but at that point in time I thought I was either 55% or 20%. Knowing that I'm about 40% I think I'd call as I think he has AK a lot here.
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