Re: *NSFW*
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How the hell does that turn card change anything? Since this guy is a microstakes retard I think his range is pretty much any 2. Ok, lets not go that far, but his range has to be a flushdraw (that he'll bet 100%, they never take the free card), an overplayed King, or a made hand (set/2-pair).
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Wolfram,
I would think at microstakes any raise means two-pair or better? I dunno, I'm not going to feel bad about checkraising that ever.
I went through a bad stretch about a year ago that got me gunshy, bigtime. Grasping a number out of thin air, I think that having your style match up to the game you are playing is worth around 1 BB/100. There are so many hands where there's no particular reason to put your opponent on a particular hand, but if you tend to guess right for the games you are playing it's worth a ton of value. Like knowing what it says about opponent range when he bets or checks when the 3rd flush card comes. When you start out and move up the limits you "learn" how people play, and you think that's the only way they play, but what you're really doing is guessing and in some sense running good because of those guesses. And when the games change as they do every 9 months, kapow!
Also I still think there is no book out there that adjusts its strategy for when everyone is playing like you and your opponents have adjusted to this. HPFAP and Theory of Poker are still the closest. There are just strategy fundamentals, the value of your bets, that you have to learn for yourself and aren't going to be published in books or on these boards because they are mostly boring. And once you've done all that you need to know when to ditch it for the reads I've mentioned above, because that's a large part of your profit. That's all I got for you, it could be you're just running bad too.
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