Re: Question #48
Alright, I'm a noob, so I'd like to see if I'm doing this correctly...
First thing to do is to figure out the possible hands of both MP and LP.
MP's hand range: 88+, ATs+, AQo+, KJs+ and perhaps some even lower suite connectors?
LP's hand range according to Harrington PF play after a raise could be: TT+, AKs, AKo,
he may also be raising for isolation more than value, being on the button.
MP raised 4BB, and LP re-raised almost 3times pot size. The is 195$ and it's 130$ for us to call, a 1.5:1 pot odds.
Now, we've got mainly 3 possibilities I guess, fold, call or raise...
A call would most likely get MP involved as well, (he will be getting 3.25:1 pot odds to call). Question is, of his initials hands he played, how many will he fold in front of a re-raise & call?
I've put him on 13 possible groups of hands (for a total of 105 hand combinations) . With a 3.25:1 pot odds, he could call with his pocket pairs and his AQs+ (does this sounds reasonable?). Hence, he would call with 54 of his hands (51% call) and raise with his 3 possible As combination (3% re-raise).
As for the LP, he has a total of 32 possible hands; 19% of time would have AA or KK, 56% lower pocket pairs, 28% AK or AQs.
3% of the time MP re-raise, and we know we're beat and we've wasted 130$
51% of the time MP calls and we're in a 3-way pot.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.297% 17.53% 06.76% 320864335 123765579.50 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 40.148% 35.09% 05.06% 642091366 92607103.50 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 35.554% 32.24% 03.31% 589975444 60652762.00 { 88+, AQs+, AKo }
so we'll be getting 24% pot equity for a call on a pot of 425$ 51% of the time(so 102$ of that pot would belong to us).
if MP folded, we would be getting a 40% pot equity on a 325$ pot 49% of the time (so a 130$)
Since in the best case scenario we're just breaking even with a call, a call can't be right.
Let's see about a re-raise of about 400$.
MP faced with some 1.6:1 pot odds and is caught in a sandwich effect, would fold all but his As, to which he would go all-in. so 3% of time he would go all-in, and fold the rest.
LP would have 2.3:1 pot odds and would probably think he's beaten unless he's holding As or Ks maybe. so 10% of the time he'll go all-in and 10% he would just call with KK, the rest he would fold I guess?
If he called with Ks, we would be getting 30% pot equity on a 855$ pot (256$ equity) or only 18% if he called with either As or Ks (154$ equity)
Our EV would be:
10%+3% either MP or LP re-raises and we fold
EV = (-390 * .15) = -50.7$
could it be more often than that? let's say either could bluff, so 20% either MP or LP re-raises and we fold
EV = (-390) * .20 = -78$
20% MP folds, and LP calls with Ks or As
EV = (154$ - 390$)*.2 = -47$
60% MP & LP fold
EV = 195% * 0.8 = 117$
Total EV = 117$ - 47$ -50.7$ = 19.3$
So a raise would be the best call (unless I'm not doing this right)
Thoughts?
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