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Old 09-02-2007, 03:26 PM
Artdogg Artdogg is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
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Default Re: NFL 6pt 2 teamers

[ QUOTE ]
by "screw around" do you mean that they try to bait you into taking -EV wongs by posting the straight bet spreads at scewed odds.

i.e im seeing lots of Atlanta +2.5 (+100), Miami +2.5 (+105)

Teasing these wong styl would not be +EV as these are not the true lines...correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this is an interesting week. They have screwed around with just about every line in the vicinity of the 3 and the 7 (outside of cincy/balt) but they dont seem to mess with the dogs NEARLY as much as they screw with the favs. You can pretty much expect almost all 7-8.5 point favs (and even some 6.5) to be set at 9+, making them unwongable.

Some of these could still be +EV. A lot of the lines where you tease OFF the key numbers are still +EV, while the ones where you tease ONTO a key number are not (or at least less EV than betting on the spread.)

This seems to be a "pick your spots" week. The only true wong up seems to be DET/BALT (although that wouldnt be available at 5dimes.) 5 dimes seems to only screw with their dogs by a 1/2 or at most 1 point. I have no idea if a half point is more valuable than 10 cents, hopefully someone else can chime in there. My guess is it would be more valuable than a 1/2 point and less valuable than a point (on average.)
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