Re: Risk of ruin question
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The main problem is that you estimated the probability that you would be down 20 BB at the end of the period, but we want the probability that you bust out at some point, which is significantly higher.
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This is correct. I'm looking for the probability that at any point in your session you will be 20BB down from where you started.
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It's a lot harder to estimate that. There are some questions about using the normal/Brownian approximation. If you have enough hands for your end result to be roughly normal, that does not imply your downswings are roughly the same as for a Brownian motion. I'm not convinced that this makes a big difference, but with only on the order of 100 hands, the normal approximation itself is suspect.
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Remember when I said I follow math? I stand corrected. Thanks for weighing in...let me know if you figure anything out. I think this is an interesting question because of the application in the OP; when I'm on vacation in Las Vegas I often want to take a shot at a bigger game, but I'd like to know my chances of busting out in any given time period.
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