Re: quickly calculating odds.
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I read this on another site as a way to quicky come up with the percentage that your hand will win. it seems pretty simple and therefore has me pretty sceptical. what does everyone here think?
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This approximates the chance to hit, not the chance to win.
Sklansky writes quite well on why calculations like this one don't need to be all that precise to begin with since there are typically some unlikely possibilities that are being discounted. For people who are inclined to do so, calculating the exact probability also isn't really that hard.
Notably, if players raise on the turn regularly (and they should) then it's questionable to calculate the odds for both cards to come.
Regardless, it's very easy to see that for the river, the number of unknown cards is 46, so it's really 2.17.. percent per out, but 2 is certainly a good first order estimate.
For the flop calculation things are a bit more involved, since it makes sense to consider backdoor draws as well, but 4% per out (b/d straights and flushes count as an extra out) is also a good first-order approximation.
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